Though India has almost registered themselves for the knockout stages of the ongoing 2022 T20 World Cup, they’ll NOT be keen on facing NZ in their semifinal fixture.
The last three times (2019 ODI WC, 2021 WTC final and T20 WC 2021 group-stage) India has met NZ in an ICC event, the Kiwis have spoilt the party for the Men in Blue on each occasion.
There’s always the baggage of past and history has a habit of repeating itself. Therefore, it’ll be great for Rohit and co. to evade New Zealand as long as possible.
2 cases in which Team India can avoid NZ in the semifinal
The table topper of Group 1 (NZ’s group) and the runners-up of Group 2 (India’s group) have to face each other by the current format of the ICC T20 WC 2022. Similarly, the side topping Group 2 will play semis against the 2nd placed side from Group 1.
To make sure India doesn’t have to face New Zealand in the semifinal, one of the following 2 cases has to come true.
Case 1: If India loses vs ZIM
If the Men in Blue suffer an upset loss against ZIM, they’ll finish 2nd in the group provided at least one of Pakistan and SA lose their last group match. Both SA and PAK have better Net Run Rate (NRR) than India.
But then, India will also have to pray for England (NRR +0.547) to finish ahead of NZ (NRR +2.113) in Group 1. For that, England will have to beat Sri Lankan by a huge margin (approx. 130 runs or inside 7 overs) in their last group game from Group 1.
Case 1 summary:
• NED beats SA, or BAN beats PAK, or BAN vs PAK gets called off due to rain.
• ENG beats SL by 130+ runs or inside 7 overs (approx).
This way, both India and NZ will end 2nd in their groups and can’t face each other in the semifinal.
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Case 2: If India beats ZIM
The more realistic and probable outcome is both NZ and India topping Group 1 and 2 respectively so that they’re not up against each other in the semifinal.
For that to happen, things are pretty simple. Rohit’s men have to beat ZIM and England has to lose to SL or win against SL by a margin that doesn’t take their Net Run Rate past that of the Kiwis.
Case 2 summary:
• IND beats ZIM
• SL beats ENG or ENG beats SL by less than ~ 130 runs (or 78 balls to spare).