How Can India Qualify for the WTC 2025 Final? Full Scenario Explained

After the Australia vs India Test in Adelaide, the World Test Championship table has seen huge changes. India lost their top spot and slipped to third place, while Australia climbed from third to claim the top position. South Africa remains in second place. This shift has increased the pressure on India, as they now have only three matches left.

However, the Rohit Sharma-led side still has a golden opportunity to secure a place in the top two and book their spot in the final. Here’s a breakdown of the scenarios India needs to achieve to secure their ticket to Lord’s in the upcoming World Test Championship matches.

Winning Remaining Three Matches Guarantees India a Spot in the WTC 2025 Final

At present, Australia is at the top with a 60.71% PCT. South Africa follows with a PCT of 59.26%, while India is in third with a PCT of 57.29%. Sri Lanka, with a PCT of 50.00%, has a very slim chance to finish in the top 2 of the World Test Championship table.

Australia, with five remaining games, is the top favorite. Three of those matches are against India, and from January to February, they will play two Tests against Sri Lanka. South Africa is currently playing a Test against Sri Lanka and has two Test matches left against Pakistan, which will be played between December and January.

However, if India defeats Australia in their remaining three matches, India’s PCT will rise to 64.04%, while Australia’s PCT will drop by 50%. With this, India’s ticket to the final will be secured, as they will not be dethroned from the top 2 positions, ensuring their place in the WTC 2025 Final.

From that point, Australia’s path will become challenging. Even if they win the two matches against Sri Lanka, their PCT will only reach 55%, and they will also need Pakistan to defeat South Africa in their two Test matches to keep their hopes alive.

What if India fails to win the remaining 3 games?

Two wins and a draw will also keep India’s chances of reaching the WTC 2025 Final alive. However, if India loses one of their remaining matches, they will have to rely on the results of Sri Lanka vs Australia and South Africa vs Pakistan to determine their qualification. India can’t afford to lose two games in this situation.