It is never easy to talk about Chennai Super Kings in crisis. This is a team that has set the gold standard in the IPL. CSK have always been cool-headed, calculated, and clinical when it mattered the most. But IPL 2025 has thrown them into unfamiliar territory.

They were supposed to be giving the Sunrisers a run for their money, but instead they ended up on the losing side at Chepauk, which is their first defeat against SRH at home. After a crushing defeat to Sunrisers Hyderabad in what was practically a knockout game, CSK is now staring elimination dead in the eye.

Seven losses in nine games. Five matches to go. No room for mistakes and a net run rate that isn’t doing them any favours. If you are a CSK fan, you are probably doing the math every morning, calculating the permutations, checking other teams’ fixtures, and clinging to hope like it is the last over of a tight chase.

How can CSK still qualify for the IPL 2025 playoffs?

The truth is that the yellow army’s playoff chances are no longer in their own hands. There is only one way forward, which is to win the rest of the games. CSK has reached a point where every remaining game is a final. They have to win all five matches that would get them to 14 points, which, under normal circumstances, might be good enough, but not this season. The 2025 IPL table is crowded and competitive.

And to make it worse, their net run rate is not in great shape either. So just winning won’t be enough, as they need big wins. Even then, they need help.

Let’s say that CSK does pull off the miracle and finishes with 14 points. That still doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot. Not even close because they will likely find themselves in a logjam with other teams all fighting for one or two spots. The only way CSK makes it through in that scenario is

1) Their Net Run Rate improves dramatically

2) Teams like Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants don’t win more than two of their remaining matches

3) Some of the current top-four teams have a late-season meltdown

What if CSK lose one game?

If CSK loses even one of their remaining five matches, it is over, and they would be mathematically eliminated. Every game from now on is a must-win. Not just for points, but for pride, legacy, and maybe for MS Dhoni’s last hurrah, if that indeed is on the horizon.